The assessment estimates the potential for the disease to spread across south-eastern Europe. EFSA evaluated the possibility of spread among nine disease-free countries – Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia.
EFSA concludes that the chances of the disease spreading among these countries within one year of introduction are very high (66-100%). However, the chances of the disease spreading west into other EU Member States within the same time frame are rated as very low (0-15%).
According to EFSA early detection and preparedness is key to controlling spread of the disease. In particular, EFSA recommends:
- Rigorous surveillance, especially surveillance of wild boar and domestic pigs, which remains the most effective means for early detection of African swine fever.
- Measures to limit access of wild boar to food and further reduce boar numbers through hunting.
- Awareness campaigns for travellers, hunters, farmers etc. to limit the risk of spread via movement of people, as well as to assist with early detection.
- Communication and collaboration among national authorities and stakeholders to support awareness campaigns.
- Training activities for veterinary officers, other relevant bodies and hunters to increase the probability of early detection and effective control.
For more information see: https://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/efsajournal/pub/5861